Gökhan Altıner writes..."Ankara Still Supports Tatar..."

With approximately a year left until the presidential elections, political discussions and rumors abound. Recently, I have heard some rumors about President Ersin Tatar, suggesting that Ankara is looking for a new candidate because they believe Tatar cannot win. It was even rumored that a minister from the cabinet was offered to run but declined.

Before the holiday week, I hosted Finance Minister Özdemir Berova. During our coffee chat before the program, the conversation naturally turned to the presidential elections. The minister made an important statement: “During all my visits to Turkey, the first thing mentioned is support for President Tatar, and then we discuss our own issues.” He reiterated this support from the Turkish government for Tatar during the live broadcast.

There are frequent statements of strong support for Tatar and his policies on the Cyprus issue from members of the Turkish government. This suggests that the rumors about Ankara seeking a new candidate are unfounded and that the Turkish government still supports Tatar and his policies.

In the last election, Tatar's main rival was the very strong Mustafa Akıncı, and Turkey went all out in support of Tatar, who won in the second round by a narrow margin. Whether the same scenario will play out this time is uncertain.

There was significant discomfort with Akıncı among the Turkish public, yet the election result was still very close.

Turning to Tufan Erhürman, the streets are buzzing with his name, and there is a strong public perception that he will win this election. However, based on my experience, I remember that before the last presidential election, many believed Tatar wouldn’t even make it to the second round, let alone win. On election night, I was genuinely surprised to see Tatar leading with 34% of the vote.

Why am I mentioning this? To highlight that voters can be unpredictable. They might criticize a candidate loudly but still vote for them. This time, Erhürman has a different dynamic compared to Akıncı. He doesn’t have any significant issues with the Turkish public or government, aside from advocating for a federation. The upcoming New York Summit in September might reveal any shifts in Turkey’s Cyprus policy, which could be crucial.

Erhürman is a well-respected and beloved figure among Turkish Cypriots, giving him a strong chance to win. However, Tatar hasn’t lost the trust of the Turkish Cypriot electorate either, indicating a competitive race. Predicting the election outcome is challenging, as it heavily depends on potential shifts in Turkey’s Cyprus policy.

Currently, there is no softening in the Cyprus issue, but the United Nations is determined to initiate a new negotiation process. We will have to wait and see how the New York summit unfolds.

Rumors often surface, such as Prime Minister Ünal Üstel running for president if he emerges strong from the UBP congress. However, it is known that Üstel will support Tatar in the presidential elections. Some factions are indeed trying to create a rift between Üstel and Tatar.

I asked Tatar about this before hosting him, and he assured me that Ünal supports him and that there are no issues between them.

Let's wait and see if there will be any changes in the Cyprus issue in the coming period.