Ulaş Barış writes..."The Genie is Out of the Bottle"

The recent statement by Greek Government Spokesperson Pavlos Marinakis on a TV channel, claiming that "the Greek government expects a comprehensive plan regarding the Cyprus issue," has caused quite a stir.

In his statement, Marinakis mentioned that Athens had been informed about a comprehensive plan, including Turkey-Greece cooperation, and that there was now an expectation for a "new plan" to emerge.

The Greek spokesperson suggested that this new plan might include innovative ideas in line with UN criteria and that Athens was aware of the general outlines but was waiting for it to become more concrete.

According to information obtained by Cyprus Post, unlike previous plans, certain steps might be taken this time to encourage the Turkish Cypriots towards a solution. These could include direct flights, trade, and sports activities, potentially presented as a package.

Meanwhile, Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides, in a statement to the press last weekend, said, "We will receive good news before the end of the year," and followed this by stating, "We are on the verge of making very historic decisions."

What you have read so far is an excerpt from a related article I wrote for Cyprus Post.

I will delve deeper into the topic in the following paragraphs.

Firstly, I do not think the Greek spokesperson's statements were a slip of the tongue.

Why do I say this? Because after the news spread via the Athens News Agency yesterday, both Greek and Greek Cypriot official sources claimed that the spokesperson's words had been misunderstood and that what was expected was not a new plan but a sort of roadmap, new steps.

There is even speculation that what the spokesperson was referring to was Maria Holguin's "roadmap" presented to UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, which is expected to be presented to the parties soon.

However, the genie is out of the bottle, and it is impossible to put it back. Because it is impossible for the Cyprus issue to continue as it is, and therefore, a simple adjustment is needed.

Thus, the Greek spokesperson's statement should be evaluated as "where there's smoke, there's fire."

Greece attaches importance to the resolution of the Cyprus issue. However, it places much more importance on its relations with Turkey.

Unfortunately, the relations between the two countries, which have been going very well for months, have been slightly strained by some statements made due to the 20 July hysteria and rhetoric. There is no fatal situation, but we can see that the two countries have been unnecessarily strained.

Greece does not want this at all. Turkey does not want it either, but it must be said that Greece is in a much more sensitive situation. Therefore, Greece, which wants to get out of this situation, seems to be in a hurry to see positive developments in the Cyprus issue, which has also caused the spokesperson to get excited.

So, based on the Greek spokesperson's statements, what do we think Athens knows about and what are the "creative ideas"?

The information I have received suggests that some aspects aimed at encouraging the Turkish Cypriots might be included in the plan as a sort of "precondition."

You might recall that the current British High Commissioner on the island, Irfan Siddiq, stated last year, "Incentives should be given to the Turkish Cypriots to restart negotiations," for which he was criticized by the Greek press.

However, it seems Siddiq was aware of the "new dish being cooked" when he made those statements.

As we reported in yesterday's article, these incentives might be a package similar to the 3-D concept put forward by the Turkish Cypriot side, including direct trade, direct flights, and sports activities.

Could this happen?

Recently, there has been talk of a negotiation modality frequently repeated by CTP. This modality aims not just to negotiate but to lead to a result-oriented process. If the table is set, it means a system where those who drag their feet towards a solution will be punished, and those who facilitate the process will be rewarded.

Now, if the claims are true, it is said that if the Turkish Cypriot side, which was left stranded by the Greek Cypriots twice in the Annan referendum and Crans Montana, experiences the same thing again, it could at least have the things I mentioned above. Of course, this depends on goodwill.

In this context, despite President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's negative statements about a federal solution both during the 20 July ceremony and yesterday, his remarks, "We will not leave the hand of peace extended to us in the air," which he emphasized in both speeches, are very significant.

The political circles also suggest that Turkey is not averse to a solution that might not be called a federation but resembles it.

In the meantime, it is not difficult to understand that the reaction against the word "federation" is actually due to Turkey's own internal sensitivities (Kurdish issue).

Returning to the beginning, I think that Pavlos Marinakis' statements, which are the subject of this article, are not a slip of the tongue but rather based on information.

We also hear that there have been some discussions and consultations on the Athens-Ankara line.

I think the steps Turkey has taken towards the West, the change in its monetary policy, and the benefits it has reaped are very critical.

The progress made in the fight against inflation, Turkey's rising credit rating, warm messages with the EU, and President Erdoğan's re-affirmation of the EU as a goal are all very positive developments. The key to this path is the resolution of the Cyprus issue.

Of course, it is not easy to abandon the banal and stifling rhetoric of the past. Therefore, it is necessary to read between the lines in the statements made by the parties.

Greek Cypriot leader Christodoulides' remarks, "We will receive good news before the end of the year," and "we are on the verge of making historic decisions" are not empty talk.

Similarly, the insistence of Turkish officials on saying "Turkish Cypriot State" reflects a certain preparation. I believe another meaning is being attributed to these definitions reminiscent of a federal solution.

Considering everything I have mentioned and what we have experienced in the past six months, I see that the Cyprus issue is once again, perhaps for the last time, approaching a decision point. I have no doubt about this.

I do not know what the outcome will be, but I believe the genie is out of the bottle, and it is impossible to put it back.