Ulaş Barış writes..."Hopeful Anticipation Continues for Cyprus Solution"

The wait for developments in the Cyprus issue remains hopeful as UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres' initiatives from the 15th of October in New York have yet to yield expected results.

One of the initiatives involved a meeting between the two leaders regarding new crossing points on the island, but this has yet to take place, although the leaders' special representatives are continuing discussions.

Meanwhile, UN Deputy Secretary-General Rosemary Di Carlo, who is expected to visit Cyprus to implement this step, has not made any public statements either.

The second initiative, a broader multilateral conference, remains uncertain as well. While initially suggested to take place in early December, followed by a more definite "5 January" date reported by the Greek Cypriot press, no confirmation has been provided. Ersin Tatar, in his recent meetings in Brussels, speculated that the conference could take place by the end of January, but this has yet to be verified.

According to reports from the Greek Cypriot daily Filelefteros, there is no word from New York on Guterres' new initiative. Representatives of the Republic of Cyprus have intensified diplomatic efforts in New York regarding both the conference and Di Carlo's visit, with the only expected direct interaction between the two sides being the UN’s traditional New Year reception on 10 December in Ledra Palace. Both Tatar and Nikos Christodoulides are expected to attend this event.

In the past, such receptions have been significant, leading to major decisions. For instance, during the 2016 reception, following the collapse of the Mont Pelerin talks, a surprise decision was made to restart the Cyprus negotiations, with leaders Nikos Anastasiadis and Mustafa Akıncı agreeing to continue discussions.

However, despite these precedents, the situation today remains uncertain, particularly regarding what will be discussed at the upcoming conference. Cyprus Republic Foreign Minister Constantinos Kombos, speaking at an event last Friday, confirmed that the planned meeting on crossing points will take place before any five-party talks. He also stated that President Christodoulides' efforts to restart negotiations have made progress but have not guaranteed a positive outcome.

Kombos emphasized that any progress must align with Security Council resolutions and principles, asserting that anything outside the UN framework will not lead to agreement, reaffirming that the Greek Cypriot side is committed to a federal solution.

On the other hand, Turkish officials, including Tatar, have repeatedly stated that a federal solution is no longer viable. This stark contrast underscores the lack of common ground between the two sides.

Yet, there are signs that Turkey may be softening its stance on the two-state solution. The appointment of Maria Holguin last year and her subsequent report, as well as the trilateral dinner in New York, suggest a shift toward restarting negotiations.

My assessment is that the solution to the Cyprus issue will likely be a unique "Cyprus model," akin to other hybrid models like Taiwan or Singapore. This model would combine both sides' interests within the framework of UN criteria, EU law, and international law.

The security and guarantees aspect will likely be determined by the guarantor powers and other international forces, and this could be the most crucial issue in any potential process.

The recent warming of Turkish-Greek relations, as well as the growing cooperation between the two nations, has added a new dimension to the Cyprus issue, as the resolution of long-standing bilateral issues may help facilitate a broader solution to Cyprus.

While both countries maintain that Cyprus should be considered separately from their bilateral relations, the resolution of the Cyprus issue is intrinsically linked to the state of Turkish-Greek relations.

Additionally, Turkey and Greece have recently agreed on a diplomatic strategy for the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), where Greece will support Turkey's candidate for Secretary-General, and Turkey will support Greece's candidate for a key human rights position.

The two countries have also discussed seeking a legal resolution on maritime jurisdiction in the Aegean Sea, which could be a significant step forward.

All of these developments suggest that the Turkish-Greek rapprochement is pivotal for solving the Cyprus issue.

High-level talks between the two countries are ongoing, with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan visiting Athens recently and, more recently, Deputy Foreign Ministers from both sides meeting. It is expected that the Cyprus issue will be on the agenda of these talks.

Despite the lack of concrete progress since 15 October, the ongoing diplomatic exchanges between all parties indicate that there is still hope for movement.

However, it is important to recognize that UN Secretary-General Guterres has been preoccupied with other critical global issues, such as the Russia-Ukraine war, the Gaza crisis, and the recent escalation of the conflict in Syria. These crises have understandably pushed the Cyprus issue further down the agenda.

Nonetheless, it is crucial not to lose hope. Although 2024 may not have brought the desired outcome, there is optimism that 2025 could bring us closer to a solution.

Who knows?