Ulaş Barış writes..."An Important Call and the Aspiration for a 'Win-Win'

Turkey's Ambassador to the European Union, Faruk Kaymakcı, called on the Republic of Cyprus over the weekend, urging them to consider the needs of other EU member states and allow the resumption of the EU-Turkey high-level energy dialogue.

The dialogue, initiated in 2016, was suspended by the European Council in 2019 after Turkey sent two ships to explore natural gas in the exclusive economic zone (EEZ) of the Republic of Cyprus.

In an interview with Politico, Kaymakcı stated that Cyprus is the only country among the EU's 27 members opposing the resumption of the dialogue, calling on the country to consider the needs of other EU member states.

"(The Greeks) may not need much energy in the sunny Mediterranean, but most member states say they need more energy, more diversity, so this (blockade) will continue," Kaymakcı said, adding that the suspension of the high-level dialogue is a "lose-lose situation."

Continuing his remarks, Kaymakcı emphasized Turkey's importance in the region, stating, "Turkey is one of the main three or four energy arteries - whether to use it or not is up to the EU."

A high-level Turkish official addressing the Republic of Cyprus, which Turkey does not recognize, is undoubtedly significant.

The issue is not just about gas. The Republic of Cyprus is also the country that vetoed eight chapters in Turkey's EU accession negotiations. The reason for this is, of course, the unresolved situation on the island of Cyprus that has persisted for decades.

However, there is a much more critical point.

That is the announcement made by the Republic of Cyprus last week about the start of natural gas drilling activities, which are poised to shake the balances in Cyprus to their core.

The news, which delighted Greek Cypriot leader Nikos Christodoulides so much that he posted drilling photos on his X account, will affect not only Turkey-EU relations but also Turkey-US relations.

The consortium conducting the drilling in blocks 10 and now 5 is led by American Exxon Mobil, one of the world's largest oil companies, and Qatar Petroleum, Qatar's state oil company.

Therefore, expecting Turkey to repeat its 2019 attempt to chase away the ships of the Italian company ENI, which tried to drill in block 3, would be unrealistic.

This is not only due to the deterrence of the increased military activities of the US in the southern part of Cyprus in recent years, but also because of Qatar's status as an 'eternal friend.'

On the other hand, there is also the issue of the continental shelf. Turkey claims rights in parts of blocks 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7, located west of the island. Although block 5 may not be entirely within the claimed area, the situation is still quite troubling.

There is no doubt that the only way to resolve this continental shelf issue is for Turkey and the Republic of Cyprus to reach an agreement. However, in the current political climate, this is impossible. The two countries do not recognize each other politically due to the Cyprus problem.

Therefore, the resolution of the issues arising from these natural gas drilling activities depends on the resolution of the Cyprus problem.

And this is not a one-sided issue. The EU cannot turn its back on Turkey, one of its largest strategic trade partners, due to the Cyprus problem. However, it also cannot allow the rights of its member state to be violated.

The situation that Faruk Kaymakcı described as a "lose-lose" is precisely this.

Turkish Cypriots are already in a 'lost subject' position, the biggest losers of the equation. Turkey is being excluded from the Eastern Mediterranean energy equation due to the Cyprus problem and is experiencing problems in its political relations. Issues such as the Customs Union agreement, which cannot be updated, and the visa liberalization problem are growing.

The EU is in a vulnerable position regarding its energy needs, especially with the natural gas shortage that emerged after the Russia-Ukraine war. While trying to strengthen its commercial and strategic ties with Turkey, it is also experiencing significant difficulties with Turkey in the opposite direction.

And the Republic of Cyprus, although it has recently entered into a sort of guarantor relationship with the US to protect itself against Turkey, lives with the potential of facing a situation where the gas it will extract needs to be transferred to Europe and the possibility of 'snow falling on the mountains it trusts.'

However, the simplest mathematical calculation shows that the natural wealth to be extracted around the island can only be connected to the mainland most directly through Turkey.

Instead of laying a nearly 2,200-kilometer pipeline like East-Med, which would cost around 17-18 billion euros, a mere 80-kilometer pipeline through Turkey is the most logical option.

The Turkey route is the most sensible alternative that international financial capital would prefer.

For this, a solution must be found to the ongoing political situation on the island of Cyprus.

Faruk Kaymakcı's call is therefore extremely important, perhaps even historic.

It should be remembered that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has called for multiple "Eastern Mediterranean Conferences" over the past 2-3 years. Erdoğan has emphasized the "win-win" formula in these calls.

At this point, what would benefit everyone is to turn the 'lose-lose' situation described in the scenarios above into a 'win-win' situation, as President Erdoğan said.

The gas equation, which is the biggest proof that the Cyprus problem is an 'international issue,' must be resolved somehow, and this resolution should be crowned with a political agreement on the island of Cyprus.

Otherwise, the biggest losers will be the Turkish Cypriots and Turkey.

History will undoubtedly write about the brave, and bravery is not about getting caught up in absurd taboos, drowning in rhetoric, and intimidating others.

Bravery is about making the most difficult decisions in the most creative way for the noble interests of their people.

Anything else is 'empty bravado' and benefits no one.

In this context, I find Ambassador Kaymakcı's call extremely important.

I believe this call could be a harbinger of significant developments before the multilateral Cyprus conference planned for March.

The situation on and around the island is unsustainable and must change.

Otherwise, each day of unresolved issues increases the potential for a hot conflict.

This is something no one can win, and there is no doubt that we are all against it.