Kutlay Erk: March’s 5+1 Informal Talks Could Determine Cyprus’ Fate

Erk emphasized the significance of the March meeting, stating that if it leads to the resumption of negotiations towards a definitive solution, Turkey may not favor a leader opposing a federal settlement at the table. In such a scenario, Ankara could advise Tatar to step aside, positioning Erhürman as the most viable candidate.

A Process Similar to Denktaş’s Marginalization

Speaking on Gündem, a program on Kıbrıs Postası TV hosted by Ulaş Barış, Erk responded to questions about the political landscape.

"If developments unfold this way and Tatar still wins the presidency, Turkey will still support a federal solution," Erk claimed, adding that except for Foreign Minister Tahsin Ertuğruloğlu, other figures in the National Unity Party (UBP) would not oppose a federation.

He also speculated that following the Geneva meeting, Turkey could push for early elections in the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), which could result in Erhürman becoming prime minister while Tatar remains president. Erk likened this to the 2002 peace process, when Rauf Denktaş was sidelined and then-Prime Minister Mehmet Ali Talat led negotiations.

“The Two-State Model Is a Legacy of Denktaş”

Erk criticized the portrayal of the two-state solution as an initiative of President Tatar and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, arguing that it was originally a stance advocated by Rauf Denktaş. He explained that the two-state model gained traction in response to the failure of the 2017 Crans-Montana negotiations but has never been fully substantiated as a viable alternative.

He noted that the upcoming 5+1 informal meeting in March might provide important insights into the island’s political trajectory.

“Eleven Years Ago, There Was Great Hope for a Solution”

Reflecting on the February 11, 2014, Joint Declaration signed by then-TRNC President Derviş Eroğlu and Greek Cypriot leader Nicos Anastasiades, Erk recalled that all political parties except UBP initially endorsed the agreement, with UBP later coming on board after internal deliberations.

At the time, Erk was serving as CTP’s Secretary-General and recalled that then-Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu was present in Northern Cyprus to support the signing. Erk noted that the agreement sparked optimism, leading to the Crans-Montana talks, which ultimately ended in disappointment.

"UN Secretary-General António Guterres was ready to sign, and even the Greek Prime Minister was en route to Crans-Montana expecting an agreement. But it didn’t happen, which was a major letdown," Erk said.

“If Mustafa Akıncı Had Avoided Harsh Rhetoric, Tatar Wouldn’t Have Won”

Erk argued that former President Mustafa Akıncı’s inconsistent stance and sharp rhetoric contributed to his electoral defeat. He recalled Akıncı’s remarks after Crans-Montana, declaring that it was “the last attempt of this generation” and that the next generation would have to find alternative solutions. However, Akıncı later ran for re-election on a pro-federation platform, which Erk believes led to a loss of credibility.

"You can't say, ‘It’s time for the younger generation to take over,’ and then turn around and claim to still be the best candidate for a federation. That’s why Akıncı lost to Tatar," Erk asserted.

Border Crossing Issue

Regarding the opening of additional border crossings, Erk noted that both leaders would need to meet in the buffer zone to discuss the matter. He remarked that Greek Cypriot leader Nikos Christodoulides' eight-point proposal was an unusual diplomatic move, essentially presenting a "take it or leave it" stance.

Erk interpreted Christodoulides’ approach as an attempt to pressure negotiations and recalled that UN Secretary-General Guterres had urged both leaders to engage frequently and work on border openings.

He suggested that Christodoulides deliberately proposed measures he knew would be rejected to push the process forward.

Civil Society’s Role in Peace Efforts

Erk also acknowledged the work of Maria Angela Holguín Cuéllar, the UN Secretary-General’s Personal Envoy for Cyprus, in consulting with civil society groups from both communities. He noted that Cuéllar had advised UN Under-Secretary-General Rosemary DiCarlo to listen to these organizations, an idea DiCarlo welcomed.

"Politicians and the public may have differing views on the peace process. That’s why it’s crucial for both Cuéllar and DiCarlo to gather perspectives beyond the political leadership," Erk concluded.