"If Iran holds back, we get a relief bounce. But if missiles start raining down on Tel Aviv or Tehran retaliates with real teeth, we're staring down a scenario that could redefine the macro narrative for the rest of 2025,” Innes added.
Banking giant JPMorgan Chase had warned just this week that prices could top $130 if the worst-case scenario developed.
Market sentiment had already been low after Trump sounded his trade war klaxon again by saying he would be sending letters within the next two weeks to other countries' governments to announce unilateral levies on their exports to the United States.
The "take it or leave it" deal spurred fears he would reimpose the eye-watering tolls announced on April 2 that tanked markets before he announced a 90-day pause.
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