Global Trade Grew $300 Billion in First Half of 2025: UNCTAD

Despite the commercial war ignited by U.S. President Donald Trump with his sweeping tariffs, global trade increased by around 1.7 percent compared to the second half of 2024, U.N. Trade and Development (UNCTAD) economist Alessandro Nicita told AFP.

"But persistent policy uncertainty, geopolitical tensions and signs of slowing global growth pose risks for trade in the second half of the year," UNCTAD said in a statement.

"The large increase for U.S. imports was due to tariff front loading: U.S. companies stockpiled goods before the tariffs went into effect on April 5," said Nicita.

Trade in services remained the "main engine" of growth, the UNCTAD report said.

Global trade grew by about 1.5 percent in the first quarter of 2025 and is expected to have accelerated to about 2 percent in the second quarter.

"Developed economies outpaced developing countries in the first quarter of 2025, reversing recent trends that had favoured the Global South," the report said.

"The shift was driven by a 14 percent surge in United States imports and a 6 percent jump in European Union exports."

However, imports dropped by 2 percent in developing countries.

Trade imbalances, which Trump has cited as the reason behind his sweeping tariffs, "deepened during the last four quarters, with the U.S. posting a larger deficit and China and the European Union recording growing surpluses", the report said.

New US tariffs, including on steel and aluminium, "have raised the risk of trade fragmentation", the report said.

"Still, signs of resilience remain", although those will depend on "policy clarity, geoeconomic developments and supply chain adaptability," UNCTAD said.

Source: HDN