CMIRS Poll: CTP Poised for Majority, Erhürman Leads Presidential Race

The poll suggests that if parliamentary elections were held today, the Republican Turkish Party (CTP) would emerge as the clear winner with 42.48 percent of the vote, securing a potential single-party majority. The National Unity Party (UBP) would follow with 36.47 percent, while none of the other political parties would surpass the electoral threshold. In the presidential race, the survey shows CTP leader Tufan Erhürman with a commanding 47.60 percent — enough to clinch victory in the first round — leaving incumbent President Ersin Tatar trailing with 43.00 percent support.

The poll also revealed that the Rebirth Party (YDP) and Democratic Party (DP) each stand at 4.21 percent, falling short of the required threshold, while the Communal Democracy Party (TDP) registers 3.61 percent and the People’s Party (HP) 1.80 percent. The survey found that 2.00 percent of respondents preferred a mixed ballot, 2.20 percent were undecided, and 3.01 percent said they would not vote.

CMIRS noted that its quarterly surveys not only measure voting intentions but also examine wider societal indicators such as trust in politics, social confidence, individual self-assurance, and overall happiness. The center stated that the aim of the study is to monitor long-term shifts in political and social attitudes among Turkish Cypriots and to better understand how these trends evolve over time.