Study Estimates 16,500 Climate Deaths During Europe Summer

The rapidly-produced study is the latest effort by climate and health researchers to quickly link the death toll during heatwaves to global warming, without waiting months or years to be published in a peer-reviewed journal.

The estimated deaths were not actually recorded in the European cities, but instead were a projection based on methods such as modeling used in previously peer-reviewed studies.

Death tolls during heatwaves are thought to be vastly underestimated because the causes of death recorded in hospitals are normally heart, breathing or other health problems that particularly affect the elderly when the mercury soars.

To get a snapshot of this summer, a U.K.-based team of researchers used climate modeling to estimate that global warming made temperatures an average of 2.2 degrees Celsius hotter in 854 European cities between June and August.

Using historical data indicating how such soaring temperatures drive up mortality rates, the team estimated there were around 24,400 excess deaths in those cities during that time.

They then compared this number to how many people would have died in a world that was not 1.3C warmer due to climate change caused by humans burning fossil fuels.

Nearly 70 percent, 16,500, of the estimated excess deaths were due to global warming, according to the rapid attribution study.

This means climate change could have tripled the number of heat deaths this summer, said the study from scientists at Imperial College London and epidemiologists at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.