CMIRS Poll: Erhürman Leads Presidential Race by 10 Points

According to the findings, if a general election were held today, the CTP would secure 42.25% of the vote, placing it well ahead of the National Unity Party (UBP), which stands at 34.21%. Re-Birth Party (YDP) follows with 4.63%, while the Democratic Party (DP) and the Communal Democracy Party(TDP) each received 4.23%. The People’s Party (HP) polled at 2.82%, with 1.63% expressing a preference for mixed voting. The proportion of undecided voters was 3.22%, and 1.41% of respondents said they would abstain from voting.

The CMIRS report emphasized that when undecided voters are distributed, the CTP appears capable of forming a government on its own, with only UBP and YDP surpassing the electoral threshold.

In the presidential race, Erhürman holds a commanding lead, with 50.40% support in the first round. The result positions him more than 10 points ahead of potential rivals and suggests that he could enter the election with a decisive advantage.

CMIRS Director Mine Yücel commented on the significance of the results, stating: “The fact that the CTP is clearly ahead in political preference, and that Tufan Erhürman is seen as advantageous in the presidential race, reflects the lack of confidence in the current political leadership and a growing expectation for change.”

The survey, conducted in September as a continuation of CMIRS’s quarterly series, also measured Turkish Cypriots’ perceptions of political trust, social confidence, individual self-esteem, and happiness.

Analysts note that the figures reinforce a trend observed in previous CMIRS polls, which have consistently shown rising support for the CTP against the backdrop of political and economic dissatisfaction with the current government.