Sonan: Turkey Needs to Reconsider Its Cyprus Policy; Erdoğan Leaves “Open Door”

Prof. Dr. Sonan appeared on the program “Gündem” on Kıbrıs Postası TV, hosted by Ulaş Barış.

Contact Between Leaders Holds Symbolic and Strategic Significance

Commenting on the Thursday summit between Turkish Cypriot Leader Tufan Erhürman and Greek Cypriot Leader Nikos Christodoulides, Sonan stressed that the lack of meaningful negotiations over the past eight years and the absence of tangible gains for Turkish Cypriots make even a preliminary meeting an important step.

Erdoğan Leaves an “Open Door” for Foreign Policy Change

Analyzing recent meetings in Turkey, Sonan said Erdoğan referred to both the Annan Plan and the Crans-Montana process, indicating he does not fully support a federal model. However, Erdoğan’s stance, as outlined in his party’s program, does not completely exclude federation, leaving room for flexibility if necessary.

Sonan noted that while it is not easy for Turkey to change its foreign policy suddenly, Erdoğan’s pre-summit statements leave an “open door” for change, signaling a potential transition period.

Erhürman Aims to Influence Turkey’s Cyprus Policy

Sonan explained that Erhürman intends to leverage the idea of “guarantees over the entire island” to influence Turkey’s Cyprus policy. He emphasized that regional developments have increased the need for Turkey to reconsider its stance in Cyprus.

Touching on Confidence-Building Measures (CBMs), Sonan cited the Crans-Montana experience to highlight that certain gains can only be achieved at the negotiation table. He noted that recent Greek Cypriot calls for a “decentralized federation” are a product of such efforts. Sonan added that under Ersin Tatar, Turkish Cypriots were largely absent from negotiations, allowing Christodoulides to pursue policy initiatives with ease.

Federal Solution Not Possible Without Political Equality

Stressing that a federal solution is impossible without political equality, Sonan argued that Erhürman’s “four-point negotiation methodology” is realistic. However, he noted that Greek Cypriots would likely insist that negotiations come with tangible costs or concessions.

South Cyprus Strengthened Ties with EU and US, Reducing Russian Influence

Sonan observed that over the last decade, Greek Cypriot leadership has strengthened relations with both the EU and the US, curbing Russian influence in the region. He added that Turkey’s absence after 2016 left a gap that other regional actors, particularly Greece, sought to fill, often developing policies aimed at marginalizing Turkey.

According to Sonan, Turkey’s return as an influential regional actor requires adapting its foreign policy to these changing dynamics. In this context, the presence of a solution-oriented leader in Cyprus presents a key opportunity for Turkey to explore potential policy shifts.